Beat writers predict Syracuse women’s basketball’s ACC Tournament fate

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For the first time since 2016, Syracuse has earned a double-bye in the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament. After tying a program record for regular season wins (23) — 13 of which came against conference opponents — the Orange earned the No. 3 seed in the ACC Tournament. Led by point guard Dyaisha Fair, who recently entered the top five on the NCAA’s all-time women’s basketball scoring list, SU has risen to the top of the conference following a projected ninth-place finish.

After one of its most successful regular seasons in recent memory, Syracuse now has the chance to win its first ACC tournament title ever. In the quarterfinals, Syracuse will either play Wake Forest or Florida State — all of whom SU has beaten this season. Possible matchups in the semifinals include Duke and NC State, who both beat the Orange in the past two weeks.

Here’s how our beat writers think No. 20 Syracuse (23-6, 13-5 ACC) will fare in the ACC Tournament:

Cooper Andrews
Plan the parade
Finish: ACC Champions

Call me a homer. Say I’m doubling down. I really do not care. I’ve had a lingering feeling about this team from the beginning and even through the ebbs and flows of 2023-24, the Orange showed me their potential in a crowded ACC — and I think they’ll reach it.

Compared to last year’s team that had a postseason meltdown against NC State, Syracuse has a much deeper roster with capable scorers in Woolley, Alaina Rice and Alyssa Latham. She, along with Kyra Wood, Saniaa Wilson and Varejão, have also made for a stellar frontcourt, as SU holds the sixth-best offensive rebounding rate (40.9%) in the nation.

The program is finally formidable again. Though, how can I say they’ll upset teams like NC State and Virginia Tech? Well, they have Fair. And no one else does.

She’s made to dominate in March. She just hasn’t received the proper chance. But Fair proved through dazzling displays from 3 and unabating fourth quarter mastery that she’s the straw that stirs the drink, one that will be too potent for opponents to digest. Virginia Tech star center Elizabeth Kitley may miss the conference tournament due to injury, which leaves Fair and Notre Dame phenom Hannah Hidalgo as the biggest stars remaining.

Something’s gotta give. And I envision Fair leading SU to an easy quarterfinal victory and a tight semifinal win over No. 2 seed NC State to set up a third matchup with Hidalgo’s Fighting Irish in the title game. Then, like she’s already done twice this season, Fair will shock Notre Dame, deliver an ACC Championship for Syracuse and cement herself as the program’s greatest player of all time.

Zak Wolf
One and done
Finish: Quarterfinals Exit

Someone has to be the pessimist on this beat.

If you had told me at the start of the season that this team would earn a double bye in the ACC Tournament, I would’ve looked at you a little funny. I didn’t think Syracuse would do well in a deep conference where every game is a challenge.

Yet, even though I slightly doubted them at the start of the season, I’m doing it again. Will they prove me wrong? Looking at the team, the overreliance on Fair will prove to be costly, especially in the postseason. We saw against Duke and late versus NC State how Fair could be rattled by physical and aggressive defenses.

If Syracuse can get its secondary scoring options like Georgia Woolley and Izabel Varejão going, then it could be a different story. But the postseason is different. Syracuse is no longer the surprise team it was at the start of the season.

Another aspect of this tournament is Syracuse’s layoff — the longest in the field. Some people might see this as a benefit since it gives the team extra rest, but I think it’ll be to SU’s detriment.

There’s been countless times this season where we’ve seen the Orange start games slow and have to claw their way back. You don’t want to play from behind, especially in a win-or-go-home scenario. Syracuse’s lackadaisical start to games will end up costing them in Greensboro.

Justin Girshon
Too many concerns
Finish: Semi-final loss

No matter how it fares in the ACC and NCAA Tournament, this is without a doubt a home run season for Syracuse. Projected to finish ninth by the conference’s Blue Ribbon Panel, the Orange exceeded all expectations by finishing third and are now on the brink of returning to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2021.

But even with how good this team has played, there are too many concerns preventing me from thinking SU can make it to the conference championship game. Likely to play No. 6 Florida State in the quarterfinals, I think the Orange — despite being far less balanced than the Seminoles — will take care of business before likely matching up against No. 2 NC State in the semifinals.

Across SU’s four February games, Fair was on the court for all but five minutes — which isn’t necessarily a problem when games are spaced out. But in Greensboro, Syracuse would play three games in three days if it makes the championship game. Even if Fair was to stay on track with her 22 points per game, her efficiency could be a cause for concern — especially if SU’s secondary scorers can’t figure it out offensively.

All it takes for this team to lose is an off-game from Fair. Even if she thrives, a let-down performance from secondary scoring could still prevent the Orange from winning a given game. Over its final three games of the regular season, Syracuse shot 25.0% from the field versus Duke, 32.8% in a comeback win over No. 15 ACC seed Pitt and 35.4% versus NC State. No matter how many points Fair scores, it’ll all come down to SU’s efficiency — whether that’s Fair being inefficient on 25 shots or the secondary scorers failing to support her.