Beat writers split on if No. 6 Syracuse can defeat No. 4 Duke
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In No. 6 Syracuse’s previous two matchups, it paired back-to-back wins over ranked opponents for the first time since last April.
Both wins came at neutral sites, with the first being a 14-13 win over then-No. 2 Johns Hopkins in Charlotte, North Carolina. Then, the Orange comfortably blew out then-No. 20 Delaware 14-6, led by Owen Hiltz’s six-goal performance.
Now, SU is back at the JMA Wireless Dome for another ranked contest. No. 4 Duke enters Wednesday’s matchup off back-to-back wins against Providence and Richmond. The Blue Devils have scored 20-plus goals four times this season and their only loss came to Penn.
Here’s what our beat writers expect to happen when No. 6 Syracuse (7-2, 0-0 Atlantic Coast Conference) takes on No. 4 Duke (8-1, 0-0 ACC):
Zak Wolf (6-3)
Too much O’Neill
Syracuse 12, Duke 14
Before I get into my reasoning for this pick, please take my predictions with a grain of salt. In Syracuse’s three biggest games this season (Maryland, Army, Johns Hopkins) I have incorrectly predicted each one. When the Orange traveled to Charlotte for their JHU game, I picked against them for the first time. Lesson learned? I don’t think so. I’m back to picking against Syracuse.
My reasoning is pretty simple. Duke has Brennan O’Neill and Syracuse doesn’t. O’Neill won the Tewaaraton in 2023 and is the best player in college lacrosse for the second year in a row. After 97 points last season, O’Neill has shown no signs of slowing down with 48 through nine games. Last year against Syracuse, O’Neill feasted with four goals and two assists in both matchups as Duke swept the Orange. I expect the same this time around.
Against Johns Hopkins, SU struggled to contain another powerful lefty in Garrett Degnon. The attack’s five goals could be a preview of what’s to come Wednesday from O’Neill. Syracuse’s focus should be to let O’Neill get his while trying to shut down Duke’s secondary options. But as good as John Odierna’s defense has been at times this season — it held Delaware to two goals in the final 45 minutes Saturday — the Blue Devils have too much firepower.
Cooper Andrews (7-2)
Moral victory
Syracuse 13, Duke 15
At the heart of what’s been a gauntlet of a 2024 slate thus far, Duke is probably the best team Syracuse has faced. The defending national runner-ups are back with a vengeance, and SU’s previous losses to Army and Maryland lead me to believe Wednesday will yield similar results.
Ranking second in the country in offensive efficiency and fourth in defensive efficiency, according to Lacrosse Reference, while their faceoff man Jake Naso has garnered the most wins (130) in Division I, the Blue Devils are among the most complete teams in college lacrosse. The Orange have a lethal attack led by Joey Spallina, though their defense isn’t ready to stall an even better Duke offense.
O’Neill is simply a different animal than Spallina. The more experienced, versatile attack can work left and right versus elite long poles, whereas Spallina lacks diversity in his game. O’Neill’s 29 goals are second in the country and his teammate up high, Josh Zawada, is third in the country in assists (29). We’ve seen Syracuse struggle against potent attacks, like when current-No. 1 Army dominated SU’s short stick midfielders to eke out a close win. Even last year versus the Blue Devils, Syracuse’s defense needed a herculean effort (27 saves) from Will Mark to even take Duke to overtime.
The Orange are still a year away from joining the Blue Devils near the top of the pedestal. Their attack will show out against Duke to at least salvage a moral victory, but they have a ways to go defensively — and that’ll be exploited by O’Neill.
Anish Vasudevan (8-1)
Transitive property
Syracuse 15, Duke 13
Let’s take a trip right back to middle school. The most important thing in your life is maintaining the high mark on the PACER test — a multistage aerobic capacity test that progressively gets more difficult as it continues — you set in elementary school. You and your friends pool together enough money to split a Doritos and Arizona walking home from school. And, thankfully, TikTok was just the sound a clock made.
Now, let’s talk about what you learned in geometry class. The transitive property states that “if a equals b, and b equals c, then a equals c.” This theory can be applied to a lot of things outside of mathematics and I’m using it to make a convoluted argument about collegiate lacrosse.
On March 1, Duke lost 14-12 to Penn. To open the season on Feb. 17, Penn lost 12-9 to Georgetown. Before defeating the Quakers, the Hoyas lost to Johns Hopkins. And Syracuse defeated the Blue Jays on March 9. Therefore, the Orange will defeat the Blue Devils.
It’s no shock that Duke has had Syracuse’s number over the last two seasons. But I do think that this time, the Orange will live up to the challenge and actually finish the game out. They can pepper Naso with Mason Kohn and John Mullen, who both have the ability to wear Naso down as the game goes on. Enough wins at the faceoff X and consistency from Mark will lead to a narrow statement win. At the very least, seventh-grade math is in their favor.
