Opponent Preview: What to know before SU’s ACC 2nd round matchup against NC State
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WASHINGTON — Syracuse enters the 2024 Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament as the No. 7 seed — recipients of a first-round bye for the second consecutive year — and will play No. 10 seed NC State in the second round.
The Wolfpack are coming off of a 94-85 win over Louisville. Led by guard Casey Morsell’s 25, NC State totaled five double-digit scorers to fend off a 36-point outburst from Louisville’s Skyy Clark.
SU swept the regular-season series against NC State. In their first meeting at the JMA Wireless Dome on Jan. 27, J.J. Starling’s career-high 26 points and Judah Mintz’s 20 cemented a commanding 77-65 victory. Then, when the Orange traveled to Raleigh, North Carolina, on Feb. 20, Chris Bell’s 26 first-half points — on eight 3’s — was enough to see out a thrilling 87-83 SU road win.
In head coach Adrian Autry’s inaugural year at the helm, Syracuse’s 20 regular-season wins marked its most since 2018-19. Its 11 conference victories was the most since SU’s first ACC campaign in 2013-14. Now, Autry’s side has a chance at obtaining the program’s fifth-ever ACC quarterfinal berth and a shot at No. 2 seed Duke.
Here’s everything to know about NC State (18-14, 9-11 ACC) before Wednesday evening’s matchup with Syracuse (20-11, 11-9 ACC):
All-time series
Syracuse leads 14-6.
Last time they played…
On Feb. 20 at PNC Arena, Syracuse held on late to win 87-83 over NC State. Bell’s eight 3’s for 26 first-half points gave Syracuse a comfortable 55-40 halftime lead. But in the second, Bell attempted just one shot and finished 8-for-11.
Though Mintz and Starling combined for 28, NC State’s DJ Horne totaled a season-high 32 points on 50% shooting to help the Wolfpack draw within 81-80 with 4:04 left. Backup guard Quadir Copeland notched a career-high 25 points, hit a pair of late free throws to give SU a 85-83 advantage and executed the game-winning stop on Horne.
KenPom odds
NC State has a 51% chance of winning, with a projected score of 78-77.
The Wolfpack report
Indisputably, Horne is NC State’s best player. Prior to the ACC Tournament, he started 30-of-31 games and averaged a team-high 16.8 points. He’s an All-ACC Third-Team honoree. But during the Wolfpack’s regular-season finale at Pittsburgh, Horne suffered a hip injury and did not return in an eventual loss. He didn’t play in Tuesday’s first-round bout against Louisville, either.
Head coach Kevin Keatts said postgame that Horne will be a “game-time decision” versus Syracuse.
Even without Horne, NC State is a capable offensive team. Scoring reliance shifts to Morsell and junior guard Jayden Taylor — high-caliber system players with a preference toward outside shooting. Forward DJ Burns Jr. is a go-to for isolation post-up sets, given his 6-foot-9, 275-pound frame, putting up a respectable 12 points per game.
The Wolfpack also flaunt a handful of solid backups, headlined by senior guard Michael O’Connell. Keatts’ answer to a reliable ball-handler in Horne’s absence, O’Connell registered a quiet but essential 16-point contribution against the Cardinals.
NC State plays a slow and methodical brand of basketball. Especially dangerous in the halfcourt, most of its designed action — if Horne isn’t on the floor — will run through Burns Jr. The Wolfpack’s offensive success often stems from whether their big man can bully his matchup, or survey his options efficiently enough to find an open shooter.
How Syracuse beats NC State
If NC State is without Horne for a second straight contest, Syracuse’s hopes at a trip to the quarterfinals grow immensely.
Though Taylor and Morsell can score on all three levels, neither of them are prolific enough to concoct a 30-plus point performance like Horne did to SU in February. If Starling and Bell close out and don’t give up uncontested looks, the Wolfpack pairing should struggle to convert over disciplined defense.
In the frontcourt, Syracuse forward Maliq Brown has proved he can handle Burns Jr. after limiting him to just 10 and 12 points, respectively, in their two earlier matchups. And despite being undersized as a pseudo-power forward, Justin Taylor shouldn’t have issues with containing the athletic, yet unpolished, 6-foot-10 Mohamed Diarra.
Offensively, Mintz, Starling, Bell and Copeland have all had sizable scoring performances against this NC State defense, too. Provided the Orange continue to push pace in transition, force steals but work patiently for quality shots, this Wolfpack squad should prove no more than a tune-up for Syracuse.
Stat to know: 40
NC State and Louisville were knotted at 75-75 with 4:50 left Tuesday. Then, for the final three minutes, the Wolfpack went a perfect 11-for-11 from the charity stripe — part of a 33-for-40 display from the free throw line versus Louisville — to secure a victory.
Forty free throw attempts and 33 makes both mark season-highs for NC State. The next closest number across the 2023-24 campaign was 29 attempts, achieved against Syracuse on Feb. 20. Morsell led the Wolfpack with a perfect 13-for-13 clip. NC State hasn’t attempted 40 or more free throws since Dec. 1, 2021 — in a four-overtime nonconference game hosting Nebraska — but it made all the difference against Louisville.
Player to watch: Jayden Taylor, guard, No. 1
Since Horne went down at the Petersen Events Center on March 9, Taylor has been forced into the spotlight as NC State’s primary scorer. At Pittsburgh, he recorded a season-best 28 points despite the loss. And facing Louisville in a tight-knit contest Tuesday, Taylor hit two crucial 3s en route to 18 points. A proficient shooter — who averages 12.5 points, 34.1% from deep and 40.9% overall — Taylor will be essential to NC State’s push for a miracle postseason run if Horne remains sidelined.
