Data dive: A look at the numbers defining Syracuse’s season ahead of final stretch
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Syracuse (15-9, 6-7 Atlantic Coast) currently sits on ESPN’s Bracketology as the next four out for the NCAA Tournament. Most recently, the Orange swept the season series over Boston College, defeating the Eagles 79-72 win behind Dyaisha Fair’s 24 points and Georgia Woolley’s 20. Fair also reached the 2,500 career point milestone during the matchup.
With just five games and the ACC Tournament remaining on the regular season schedule — the next three against ranked opponents — Syracuse has to make its case to sneak into the field of 68. Through 24 games, the Orange have relied on second chance points and transition scoring in wins, but fourth-quarter collapses, defensive struggles and turnovers have cost the Orange some games.
Now approaching the final stretch, here’s an in-depth look at the numbers that have defined Syracuse’s season.
The magic No. 59
Head coach Felisha Legette-Jack has said multiple times that holding teams to 59 points or less is the key to victory. The Orange are 7-1 when this happens, with the lone loss coming against then-No. 6 NC State
“Sometimes I think we got a two-headed monster,” Legette-Jack said on Nov. 10, 2022. “We want to score a lot of points. We want to defend under 59 points.”
But, Syracuse hasn’t held any other opponent to under 59 points since falling to the Wolfpack. For most of this season, Syracuse has struggled defensively, conceding 67.4 points per game, ranking 249th of 361 Division-I teams, per Her Hoop Stats. In ACC play, the Orange concede 71.4 points per game — the second worst number in the conference.
In its next few contests, Syracuse will matchup against the ACC’s two highest scoring teams — Notre Dame and Florida State. While the Orange haven’t played against the Seminoles this season, ND put up 72 points at the JMA Wireless Dome a month ago. Although Syracuse is the third-best scoring team in the conference with 74.5 points per game, it will need to play better defensively to earn statement wins.
Jacques Megnizin | Design Editor
Crashing the glass
Syracuse is one of the best teams nationally in rebounding. Per Her Hoop Stats, the Orange’s 14.8 offensive rebounds per game rank 20th in Division-I while their 26.8 defensive boards per game rank 84th, making Syracuse the 26th best rebounding team overall.
Against Clemson in January, the Orange secured 21 offensive rebounds that translated to 23 second-chance points, the latter of which was more than double of the Tigers’. SU’s work on the offensive glass, paired with 29 defensive rebounds, helped spark a 24-1 run to win. The effort was one of just five games this season where Syracuse has recorded 50 total rebounds. SU has won all five.
In wins, the Orange average 15.9 offensive rebounds per game and just under 45 total rebounds. In losses, they notch just under 13 and 35.8, respectively.
“If you pursue rebounds like this, it gives us opportunities (for) not one shot, (not) two shots, but three shots in a single possession,” Legette-Jack said. “Our other bigs are trying again after it as well.”
The final frame
Against then-No. 7 Notre Dame on Jan. 15, the Fighting Irish led 50-45 at the end of the third quarter. Versus then-No. 6 NC State, Syracuse was up 49-40 entering the fourth. Then-No. 13 Virginia Tech led by just two and Georgia Tech led by one. Besides the nine-point blown lead against the Wolfpack, Syracuse lost the other three by double-digits.
Syracuse has also been on the brink of multiple upsets against ranked teams. In its loss to NC State, the Orange fell apart, going scoreless from the field for the first eight minutes of the fourth quarter.
Apart from the loss to NC State, Syracuse has trailed at the end of the third period in the other six conference losses by an average of 5.33 points. By the game’s end in those six games, the Orange lost by an average of 11.2 points. In ACC losses, Syracuse has been outscored by a combined 139-88 in the fourth quarter.
“We have to be mentally focused on being able to play 40 minutes,” Legette-Jack said following the Jan. 15 loss to Notre Dame, which outscored Syracuse 22-11 in the fourth. “Every time we tried to catch our breath, they busted us in the mouth.”
Stephanie Zaso | Digital Design Director
It’s Un(Fair)
Averaging 20.0 points per game, Fair is the second best scorer in the conference and the 20th best in the country. She’s notched double-digit points in every single game this season and hasn’t finished under that mark since March 5, 2022 when she was at Buffalo. Furthermore, she’s produced 12 20-point games this season.
When Syracuse hosted Virginia a couple weeks ago, Fair took over in the fourth quarter, scoring 17 points of her total 36 — just four points shy of breaking her career-high of 40. Against the Cavaliers, she tied a Syracuse program record of eight 3s. In SU’s most recent win against Boston College, Fair added another 11 points in the fourth to secure the win.
Fair is clearly SU’s go-to scoring option for a layup or an outside shot. Alaina Rice and Woolley have also developed into reliable scoring options as of late to help Fair. Named one of the top-10 point guards in the country, Fair is projected to go eighth overall in the 2023 WNBA draft to the Seattle Storm, per lines.com.
